Application of a land use change model to guide regional planning and development in the south basin of the Urmia Lake, Iran

Farmers have to make decisions adapt climate change and reduce environmental vulnerability. If these are made incorrectly, irreversible changes can take place that threaten environmental, social economic sustainability of agriculture. This study applies a land use model guide regional agricultural planning, with focus on the case south basin Urmia Lake, NW Iran, using data from Landsat images, statistics, questionnaire checklist. The findings indicate significant in five factors, namely rainfall, humidity, minimum temperature, average temperature maximum temperature. For example, rainfall decreased more than 10 mm has increased by 3.5 °C last 30 years. results factor analysis showed studied variables were grouped into eight factors. These factors explained 57.4% variance determinant farmers' behavior area. obtained supervised classification all uses undergone many changes. irrigated agriculture rainfed 79.43% 82.5%, respectively, while water bodies, dense grass woodlands, sparse declined sharply Lake. forecasted for year 2027 show if existing situation continues, crises will be faced terms change, since expected grow nearly 9000 ha 1000 ha, respectively.